Not long ago, Ren Zeping, a famous Chinese economist released “Ten Prophecies of China’s Economy”.
I hope it will be helpful for you to see the big picture. Read the macro trends, grasp the investment opportunities,. Choice is more important than hard work. The real wisdom is to follow the trend.
The first big prophecy, the world is at the end of the great cycle, the old order began to disintegrate, the new order is being rebuilt; economic trends, geopolitics, various trends of thought are in turmoil, whether it is China-US trade friction, or the recent Russia-Ukraine conflict, all the turmoil is for the establishment of a new order.
The second prophecy is that the nature of the China-US trade friction is strategic containment, which has a long-term and severe nature, so China has a longer way to go.
The third prophecy is that China’s development strategy is undergoing a major adjustment to promote development from high speed to high quality. As ordinary people, only by choosing the right industry with high speed development and entering into it, we can better benefit the dividends of construction development in the future.
The fourth prophecy is that China is expected to become the world’s largest economy in 2030, which will change the global economic map.
From the perspective of investment, China has the world’s largest consumer market (1.4 billion people), the world’s largest middle-income group (400 million people), and the middle-income group is still expanding. China’s labor resources are nearly 900 million people, more than 700 million are employed people, the total number of highly educated talent is about 200 million. The demographic dividend is shifting to a talent dividend.
The fifth prophecy is that China’s economic structure will undergo historic changes, and new infrastructure, new energy, digital economy and high-end manufacturing will replace real estate and old infrastructure as the new engine of the economy, which will bring new opportunities.
The sixth prophecy is that China is expected to overtake other countries in the new energy revolution and open a “golden fifteen years” and a trillion dollar track for new energy development, and lead the third energy revolution.
Historically, the first energy revolution is the application of coal, transportation switched from horse-drawn carriages to trains, after which the United Kingdom overtook the Netherlands; the second energy revolution is the application of oil and natural gas, with gasoline and diesel, cars became transportation, after which the United States overtook the United Kingdom; and the third energy revolution is NOW, the application of renewable energy is replacing fossil energy, and how China will develop in the future.
The seventh prediction is that as China’s urbanization enters the middle and late stages, the population is increasingly moving to big cities and large metropolitan areas, and the northeast and central regions are now facing serious population outflow problems. The talent “war” is intensive everywhere. But for the big cities the strong ones are still strong and the weak ones are still weak. If you want to re-choose a city for your future life, now you must think about it.
The eighth prophecy, real estate enters into the era of stock, regional differentiation will become increasingly obvious; the industry is facing reshuffle, and the transformation of real estate tax is the trend.
The ninth prophecy, the ageing population and the falling birth rate are accelerating. China’s economy is shifting from the demographic dividend to the talent dividend. The number of newborns in China is declining, so what China needs to cultivate is talent, especially highly educated talents.
The tenth prophecy is that China’s economy starts a second growth curve, shifting from high speed growth to high quality development, which will create completely different wealth opportunities than ever before. And many new economies, new technologies, new models and new consumptions will definitely emerge. If you are an investor, then you should heavyweight the future to have a great return.
Investing is to invest in the future. In every era there are opportunities belong to that era.
不久前著名经济学家， 任泽平发布了 《 中国经济的十大预言》。
第十大预言，中国经济启动第二增长曲线，从高速增长转向高质量发展，这将创造完全不同于以往的财富机会。 并且一定会涌现许多新经济、新技术、新模式、新消费。 如果你是一个投资者，那么你要重仓未来，才会拥有丰厚的回报。