Top 10 Forecasts for The Chinese Economy in 2023

Chinese economist Ren Zeping delivered his annual speech “Igniting Hope – Top 10 Forecasts for the Chinese Economy in 2023” on 20th December 2022.

#1 Forecast

The world will eventually belong to rational optimists, “It is not the strongest of the species that survives, nor the most intelligent that survives. It is the one that is most adaptable to change“, the times have changed, the only thing we need to do is to change ourselves, follow the trend, survival of the fittest.

#2 Forecast

We are in the midst of a century of old and new global economic and social cycles, social trends, globalization, international order, economic operation mechanisms, development concepts, etc. will face major adjustment and transformation, this is a big cycle, big transformation, big turbulence, big game, a promising era, we may be standing on the starting point of a new cycle, the global economic and social trough is often brewing scientific and technological innovation, business models, economic systems and industrial waves. This is a winter of disappointment followed by a spring of hope.

#3 Forecast

The world is entering an era of high-cost inflation, with the costs of energy, food, labor, capital, trade, and technology all rising, and the global economy has transitioned from the “golden age of high growth, low inflation, and great moderation” of the previous few decades into an era of “low growth, high inflation, and great turbulence.” The “Black Iron Age,” also known as the “Post-Globalisation Era,” brings both significant challenges and opportunities.

#4 Forecast

Faced with the dollar cycle, global recession, cost-driven inflation, and the shift of old and new growth dynamics, Chinese modernisation will set sail in 2023, guided by the new development concept.

Equity, security, real economy, autonomous innovation, ecological environment, high-quality development, and following the trend are the 7 key words for the future Chinese economy.

#5 Forecast

In 2023, China will launch a package of economic recovery plans to expand domestic demand and make every effort to fight for the economy, with new infrastructure, green economy, urban cluster construction, rural revitalization, the Pillars of a Great Power, and high-end manufacturing becoming the focal points of efforts, reflecting the new development concept and bringing new development opportunities.

#6 Forecast

New infrastructure will lead the way, with a new generation of information technology, metaverse, artificial intelligence, data center, extra high voltage, intelligent transportation, and other large-scale advanced construction, resulting in innovative technologies, new industries, and new engines for China’s economy.

#7 Forecast

The new energy revolution ushers in a period of explosive growth, with the three traditional tracks of new energy vehicles, lithium batteries, and photovoltaic wind power undergoing a major reshuffle, and the 3 trillion-dollar new tracks of autonomous driving, hydrogen energy, and energy storage poised to take off;

NOT investing in new energy now is analogous to NOT purchasing a house 20 years ago.

#8 Forecast

New consumer, new China-chic are rising, the one with young people has the future, the one with online has the world, shopping, life, work, production, entertainment, and other online is the trend, 8 beautiful industries take advantage of the trend,

emotional demand will grow rapidly, pet economy, home economy, medical beauty, psychologists, elderly care, and other industries are growing rapidly. We are all single-winged angels, we can only fly if we embrace each other.

#9 Forecast

Coping with an aging population and the trend of fewer children has become a national strategy, ranging from liberalizing childbirth to encouraging childbirth and vigorously building a childbirth support system. Children are the greatest wealth in the future, and cities are opening up to a war mode of attracting talents.

#10 Forecast

Real estate is entering the era of stock differentiation, regional differentiation, real estate enterprise differentiation, lot differentiation, and so on. The era of urban clusters in metropolitan areas is approaching, and real estate taxation rather than land finance is the general trend.

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Translated by Grace Liping Guo

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Ten Prophecies of China’s Economy 中国经济的十大预言

Not long ago, Ren Zeping, a famous Chinese economist released “Ten Prophecies of  China’s Economy”.

I hope it will be helpful for you to see the big picture. Read the macro trends, grasp the investment opportunities,. Choice is more important than hard work. The real wisdom is to follow the trend.

The first big prophecy, the world is at the end of the great cycle, the old order began to disintegrate, the new order is being rebuilt; economic trends, geopolitics, various trends of thought are in turmoil, whether it is China-US trade friction, or the recent Russia-Ukraine conflict, all the turmoil is for the establishment of a new order.

The second prophecy is that the nature of the China-US trade friction is strategic containment, which has a long-term and severe nature, so China has a longer way to go.

The third prophecy is that China’s development strategy is undergoing a major adjustment to promote development from high speed to high quality. As ordinary people, only by choosing the right industry with high speed development and entering into it, we can better benefit the dividends of construction development in the future.

The fourth prophecy is that China is expected to become the world’s largest economy in 2030, which will change the global economic map.

From the perspective of investment, China has the world’s largest consumer market (1.4 billion people), the world’s largest middle-income group (400 million people), and the middle-income group is still expanding. China’s labor resources are nearly 900 million people, more than 700 million are employed people, the total number of highly educated talent is about 200 million. The demographic dividend is shifting to a talent dividend.

The fifth prophecy is that China’s economic structure will undergo historic changes, and new infrastructure, new energy, digital economy and high-end manufacturing will replace real estate and old infrastructure as the new engine of the economy, which will bring new opportunities.

The sixth prophecy is that China is expected to overtake other countries in the new energy revolution and open a “golden fifteen years” and a trillion dollar track for new energy development, and lead the third energy revolution.

Historically, the first energy revolution is the application of coal, transportation switched from horse-drawn carriages to trains, after which the United Kingdom overtook the Netherlands; the second energy revolution is the application of oil and natural gas, with gasoline and diesel, cars became transportation, after which the United States overtook the United Kingdom; and the third energy revolution is NOW, the application of renewable energy is replacing fossil energy, and how China will develop in the future.

The seventh prediction is that as China’s urbanization enters the middle and late stages, the population is increasingly moving to big cities and large metropolitan areas, and the northeast and central regions are now facing serious population outflow problems. The talent “war” is intensive everywhere. But for the big cities the strong ones are still strong and the weak ones are still weak. If you want to re-choose a city for your future life, now you must think about it.

The eighth prophecy, real estate enters into the era of stock, regional differentiation will become increasingly obvious; the industry is facing reshuffle, and the transformation of real estate tax is the trend.

The ninth prophecy, the ageing population and the falling birth rate are accelerating. China’s economy is shifting from the demographic dividend to the talent dividend. The number of newborns in China is declining, so what China needs to cultivate is talent, especially highly educated talents.

The tenth prophecy is that China’s economy starts a second growth curve, shifting from high speed growth to high quality development, which will create completely different wealth opportunities than ever before. And many new economies, new technologies, new models and new consumptions will definitely emerge. If you are an investor, then you should heavyweight the future to have a great return.

Investing is to invest in the future. In every era there are opportunities belong to that era.

不久前著名经济学家, 任泽平发布了 《 中国经济的十大预言》。











第八大预言,房地产步入存量时代,区域分化将日益明显,行业面临洗牌, 房地产税的转型是大势所趋。

第九大预言,人口老龄化,少子化加速到来,中国经济从人口红利转向人才红利。 中国的新生儿数量在下降,所以中国要培养的是人才。特别是受过高等教育的人才。

第十大预言,中国经济启动第二增长曲线,从高速增长转向高质量发展,这将创造完全不同于以往的财富机会。 并且一定会涌现许多新经济、新技术、新模式、新消费。 如果你是一个投资者,那么你要重仓未来,才会拥有丰厚的回报。