Ten Prophecies of China’s Economy 中国经济的十大预言

Not long ago, Ren Zeping, a famous Chinese economist released “Ten Prophecies of  China’s Economy”.

I hope it will be helpful for you to see the big picture. Read the macro trends, grasp the investment opportunities,. Choice is more important than hard work. The real wisdom is to follow the trend.

The first big prophecy, the world is at the end of the great cycle, the old order began to disintegrate, the new order is being rebuilt; economic trends, geopolitics, various trends of thought are in turmoil, whether it is China-US trade friction, or the recent Russia-Ukraine conflict, all the turmoil is for the establishment of a new order.

The second prophecy is that the nature of the China-US trade friction is strategic containment, which has a long-term and severe nature, so China has a longer way to go.

The third prophecy is that China’s development strategy is undergoing a major adjustment to promote development from high speed to high quality. As ordinary people, only by choosing the right industry with high speed development and entering into it, we can better benefit the dividends of construction development in the future.

The fourth prophecy is that China is expected to become the world’s largest economy in 2030, which will change the global economic map.

From the perspective of investment, China has the world’s largest consumer market (1.4 billion people), the world’s largest middle-income group (400 million people), and the middle-income group is still expanding. China’s labor resources are nearly 900 million people, more than 700 million are employed people, the total number of highly educated talent is about 200 million. The demographic dividend is shifting to a talent dividend.

The fifth prophecy is that China’s economic structure will undergo historic changes, and new infrastructure, new energy, digital economy and high-end manufacturing will replace real estate and old infrastructure as the new engine of the economy, which will bring new opportunities.

The sixth prophecy is that China is expected to overtake other countries in the new energy revolution and open a “golden fifteen years” and a trillion dollar track for new energy development, and lead the third energy revolution.

Historically, the first energy revolution is the application of coal, transportation switched from horse-drawn carriages to trains, after which the United Kingdom overtook the Netherlands; the second energy revolution is the application of oil and natural gas, with gasoline and diesel, cars became transportation, after which the United States overtook the United Kingdom; and the third energy revolution is NOW, the application of renewable energy is replacing fossil energy, and how China will develop in the future.

The seventh prediction is that as China’s urbanization enters the middle and late stages, the population is increasingly moving to big cities and large metropolitan areas, and the northeast and central regions are now facing serious population outflow problems. The talent “war” is intensive everywhere. But for the big cities the strong ones are still strong and the weak ones are still weak. If you want to re-choose a city for your future life, now you must think about it.

The eighth prophecy, real estate enters into the era of stock, regional differentiation will become increasingly obvious; the industry is facing reshuffle, and the transformation of real estate tax is the trend.

The ninth prophecy, the ageing population and the falling birth rate are accelerating. China’s economy is shifting from the demographic dividend to the talent dividend. The number of newborns in China is declining, so what China needs to cultivate is talent, especially highly educated talents.

The tenth prophecy is that China’s economy starts a second growth curve, shifting from high speed growth to high quality development, which will create completely different wealth opportunities than ever before. And many new economies, new technologies, new models and new consumptions will definitely emerge. If you are an investor, then you should heavyweight the future to have a great return.

Investing is to invest in the future. In every era there are opportunities belong to that era.

不久前著名经济学家, 任泽平发布了 《 中国经济的十大预言》。

希望对大家看清大势有所帮助。看懂宏观趋势,把握投资机会,选择优于努力。顺势而为才是真正的大智慧。

第一大预言,全球正处于大周期末期,旧秩序开始瓦解,新秩序正在重建,经济走势、地缘政治、各种思潮都在动荡之中,无论是中美贸易摩擦,还是最近的俄罗斯乌克兰冲突,一切的动荡都是为了新秩序的建立。

第二大预言,中美贸易摩擦的本质是战略遏制,具有长期性和严峻性,中国还有更长的路要走。

第三大预言,中国发展战略正在进行重大调整,推动从高速增长到高质量的发展。作为普通人,只有选对高速发展的行业,躬身入局,才能在未来更好的享受建设发展的红利。

第四大预言,2030年中国有望成为世界第一大经济体,这将改变全球的经济版图。

从投资的层面讲,中国有全球最大的消费市场(14亿人口),有全球最大的中等收入群体(4亿人群),而且中等收入群体还在不断扩大;中国的劳动力资源近9亿人,就业人员7亿多,受过高等教育的人才总量约2亿。人口红利转向人才红利。

第五大预言,中国经济结构将发生历史性巨变,新基建、新能源、数字化经济、高端制造将代替房地产、老基建成为经济新发动机,带来新的机遇。

第六大预言,迎接新能源革命,中国有望弯道超车,开启新能源发展“黄金十五年”和万亿级赛道,引领第三次能源革命。

从历史上看,第一次能源革命是煤炭的应用,交通工具从马车变成了火车,之后英国超过荷兰;第二次能源革命石油和天然气的应用,有了汽油和柴油,汽车成为交通工具,之后美国超过英国;而第三次能源革命就是现在,可再生能源的应用正在替代化石能源,那么中国在未来会有怎样的发展。

第七大预言,中国城镇化步入中后期,人口越来越向大城市和大的都市圈迁移,东北和中部地区现在面临很严重的人口外流问题。各地开展人才“大战”。但是各大城市依然是强者横强,弱者横弱。如果你要重新选择未来生活的城市,现在一定要好好想想。

第八大预言,房地产步入存量时代,区域分化将日益明显,行业面临洗牌, 房地产税的转型是大势所趋。

第九大预言,人口老龄化,少子化加速到来,中国经济从人口红利转向人才红利。 中国的新生儿数量在下降,所以中国要培养的是人才。特别是受过高等教育的人才。

第十大预言,中国经济启动第二增长曲线,从高速增长转向高质量发展,这将创造完全不同于以往的财富机会。 并且一定会涌现许多新经济、新技术、新模式、新消费。 如果你是一个投资者,那么你要重仓未来,才会拥有丰厚的回报。

投资就是投未来,每个时代都有属于每个时代的机会。

Source

https://finance.sina.com.cn/roll/2022-04-20/doc-imcwipii5276166.shtml

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